Mixed Signals

Today the market continued to price in Q3.  Ag stocks were big gainers, lifted by new reports of bad weather and unexpected crop shortages.  I wanted to add to CF and maybe DBA and AGCO’s chart looked good for entry, but everything will come off the gains if the Fed disappoints, so I didn’t chase.

Gold was a puzzle, pulling back from a nice open as if discounting the possibility of Q3, and didn’t participate in the rally.  I sold SGOL near the close @ 16.13 , for a quick gain of 2.56%.  If gold moves up tomorrow, my DBP will catch the move. If not, I’ll have the cash from my single largest open trade.

This is the third trade in SGOL I’ve completed this year.  Last year I traded it successfully all the way up from 132.86 to 187.32.  SGOL holds 100% of assets in physical gold bullion.  DBP currently has 83% of assets in Gold 100 Oz Futr Dec 12  and  20.77% in Silver Future Dec 12.  DBP is trading at its 50 day SMA and under its 200 day SMA.  SGOL has outperformed DBP since last September. SGOL also has higher trading volume and a more favorable bid/ask spread.