Futures trading has continued to be positive, so I am re-investing the returns in some of the resource and precious metals stocks I sold; I have also chosen some new names. The following PDF lists all the metals and mining stocks which can now be found on the Canadian Natural Resources and Metals/Mining pages: Workbook2
So why buy now? Chiefly, this is a Resourceful Strategies blog, so I think I have a responsibility to build a profitable portfolio based on resource and resource-related stocks. I am choosing more speculative positions for the moment, as I watch to see how the upheaval in this sector will shake out. Also, the individual positions are small, which gives me room to add to them as the future for these shares becomes clearer.
The portfolio currently has seven stacks, with all but three slots of the 7th stock filled.
Happy to report that by trading the gold futures I have now recovered the full 100% of losses sustained in precious metals equities and funds earlier this year. Also, since April 1st, overall portfolio value has increased by 1%.
Here is a breakdown of the portfolio by asset class: May.31.2013
I closed several equity positions over the past 45 days or so, so I have a strong cash position going into what might shape up to be a stock market correction. Today I re-entered a position in ANZBY, which has come down nicely off its recent highs.
I have also purchased the following resource stocks: ATADF, KMKGF, PAPQF, DNN, FURNF, and SYHBF.
The fall in precious metals and mining shares has presented a challenge. I closed all my positions in two rounds of selling, the first on 4/2 and the second on 4/26. By doing so, I avoided further losses, some of which would have been substantial. As it was, losses in individual positions averaged just under 20%. On 4/16 I began trading the nearby gold futures contract. To date, I have recovered 93% of my portfolio’s 3.3% loss in precious metals funds and equities – including my gold and silver “savings” trusts. Here is the not-so-pretty picture of the positions closed: May.26.AU.SLV
Obviously I shouldn’t have been in these positions, and I have worked hard to reverse the losses. Trading futures is risky and not an option for everyone. While I am considering re-entering one or two of my equity positions, holding those I had through the downturn would have almost doubled my losses to date - a bad choice.
Here is the quarterly performance update for the 2013 first quarter: 2013QtlyHistoricalPerformance
Overall performance was helped by gains in futures positions at the end of March; these helped to offset losses in gold and silver mining positions. I have since thrown in the towel on the majority of these positions, as well as my holdings in gold and silver funds, and decimated my 2013 Natural Resources Portfolio. Technical charts are poor across the board.
Pages are updated. I’ll update the portfolio performance soon.
I have finally found time to sit down and update the portfolio and performance. Here is the performance sheet: 3.21.2013
I am happy to see the Prime 58 Portfolio with YTD gains over 7%. The resource sectors have been a major drag on overall performance, including iron & steel, copper, and gold & silver. Chinese stocks have also come off their gains. A couple of weeks ago I decided to continuing buying precious metals and other mining shares as prices in these sectors have collapsed. As I’ve said before, I don’t see see the price of gold falling below its replacement costs, so I believe the mining shares are underpriced and if and when prices correct, I think the correction will be steep enough to justify the present opportunity cost. We’ll see. So far I’ve nibbled at some old favorites: ATADF, IEGCF, AXX, BGLPF, as well as a new copper miner, Copper Mountain Mining (CPPMF). I’ve also taken some money out of stocks in other sectors so I can continue to take advantage of what I perceive as buying opportunities. Currently, I have twelve holdings in the Canadian Natural Resources Sector, another five holdings in the mining sector, and an additional ten holdings in the 2013 Natural Resource Portfolio.
Feb 15 (Reuters) – Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp , Singapore’s second-biggest lender, posted a 12 percent jump in fourth quarter net profit due to a rise in fee income and a quadrupling of gains from its insurance unit that offset weak interest margins.
OCBC earned S$663 million ($537 million) in the three months ended in December, compared with S$594 million a year earlier.
The profit was above the S$622 million average forecast of five analysts polled by Reuters.
Chief Executive Samuel Tsien said in a statement OCBC is well placed to pursue new opportunities and drive growth in key geographies and businesses.
Last week, bigger rival DBS Group Holdings reported a net profit of S$760 million for October-December, below an average forecast of S$810 million on weak interest margins. ($1 = 1.2354 Singapore dollars) (Reporting by Saeed Azhar)
Yesterday I reduced my position in SAP and added AMGN to the portfolio. This morning SAP is down just about as much as AMGN is up; would that I were always so prescient! Truth be told, I have taken profits in both SAP and AMGN over the past two years at much lower levels than they are trading today and would have been better off just letting them run…Anyway, AMGN has pulled back some and SAP is having trouble moving higher. Of course, things can change at any moment, but both are, I think, good companies to own.
I will be away for the next two Sundays, so my next performance update will probably be posted on March 3rd.